What next for the Cambodian Opposition?

Sam Rainsy (C Front), president of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), speaks at the parliamentary session in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Aug - xinhua

by School of Vice

It is reported that during the July negotiation meeting Hun Sen had warned his counterparts that this would be their last chance to reach a compromise and work with the CPP to reform the NEC. If this was indeed what he had said [and it would not surprise observers in the least that HS would have been inclined to pose this kind of ‘threat’] then it clearly indicates as to his low estimation of his negotiation partners; their lack of resoluteness in times of tension, and that there was a gap in their armour at which he could pinpoint his attacking thrust. Or perhaps, he was just bluffing them [again, he is more than capable of such things!], and he would have known all their strengths and weaknesses, and more importantly, how to exploit them to his own political advantage. He also knows his adversaries via the dialogue channels that he deliberately keeps open between them and his subordinates within the CPP hierarchy such as Interior Ministry’s Sar Kheng and others who act as first points of reference and contact for Rainsy and Sokha. These subordinates would have a feel of the CNRP leadership over most of issues that concern them, and at times they would feign sympathy for the opposition's causes, and even warned them of lurking dangers and how to circumvent them for their own sake. Yet, ultimately, they also know they are answerable to HS and his bosses abroad; just as they know what these people want and expect of them.

Thus far, and self-evidently, the Holy Grail of NEC reform is going down a cul de sac - to no one's great shock or surprise, perhaps, with the exception of the Opposition’s leadership itself. All of a sudden these CPP subordinates [who have been keeping the NEC show running to buy more time for their party] declare their collective ignorance over the nationality status of the woman they previously hinted they could agree upon to stand as the decisive 9th candidate to preside over the new electoral body! Never mind that so far 80 or 90 per cent of the two sides' divergences have been narrowed down along the same mutual line. What matters for the CPP is the remaining unresolved detail of disagreement that will in theory and practice transform this electoral body from one of being reliable, regular guarantor of its electoral victories regardless of the electorate’s will, to one of being independent and impartial arbitrator-conveyor of that same will.

During this time-buying period, the Opposition's real gains via its parliamentary participation have been just as illusory and insubstantial as those 80-90 per cent agreements reached to date. One of the various NA committees led by the Opposition could summon the Tourism minister to explain over the matter of the mysterious disappearance of tourism revenue in the millions that have been flowing, and continue to flow, into the Kingdom each day, week, month and every year. And if the minister says his Ministry has neither control nor knowledge over this vital income then, who has? Apsara Authority? Does the committee have the power to go all the way necessary, and in line with parliamentary democracy and representation, to get to the bottom of it? If the PM refuses to answer before the NA as requested by the Opposition issues as vital as border encroachments, and instead delegates someone else to do so on his behalf in person or in writing, what next?

I [and I believe the Khmer people also] could see that the Opposition is not a pale shadow of the ruling administration in character; that it is sincere in its effort to change the country's political culture and that this cannot happen overnight. Yet, whatever gains made and continue to be made [such as seeking resolutions for reported land dispute cases that are causing real hardships and sufferings to so many affected victims] must be viewed against the prospect of being made to go down indefinitely along this cul de sac of stalling and denying the nation's fundamental democratic reforms needed to change this anachronistic, backward political culture. Viewed against this depressing prospect, all these gains are cursory at best and misleading at worst. Desiring to introduce a 'culture of dialogue' in place of confrontation or violence, like the country's past proclaimed "neutrality" as its diplomatic regional stance, is only a fruitful aim if this proposed change or concept is sincerely embraced and respected by the other parties around you. If not, it is not worth anyone's salt pursuing it.

When Mr Hun Sen said: 'This will be your last chance' it sounds no more and no less an act of faith than what Khmer people are used to hearing at any market stall throughout the country: Take this last offer or I will walk away; only to walk back to the same stall for want of a better alternative! Am I talking from experience? Possibly!!

My message to the Opposition leadership is: never allow personal comfort and security of any sort blind you from the entrenched calamities facing your nation and people. Abide by the people’s will. That is not an impossible irrational demand, but a privilege and an honour bound by a sense of gratitude and duty.