Thailand Braces for $3.1 Billion Hit From Dispute With Cambodia

 

Anutin Charnvirakul

Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg

By Randy Thanthong-Knight

October 20, 2025 

Bloomberg UK 

Takeaways by Bloomberg AI

• Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s government predicts losses could total 100 billion baht from disruptions to cross-border trade with Cambodia.
• Thai businesses have lost an estimated 15 billion baht per month following the closure of border crossings between the two countries.
• The Trump administration has imposed 19% tariffs on Thai exports, though the Thai government wants to negotiate a lower rate.

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s government predicts losses could total 100 billion baht ($3.1 billion) from disruptions to cross-border trade with Cambodia, after a longstanding territorial dispute erupted into armed conflict earlier this year.

Following the closure of border crossings between the two countries, Thai businesses have lost an estimated 15 billion baht ($458 million) per month, according to minutes of last week’s economic committee meeting seen by Bloomberg News. Total losses could reach 100 billion baht if the situation persists through the end of the year, the minutes showed.

The first official estimate of the damage comes as Anutin, who came to power after his predecessor was dismissed over her handling of the border dispute, looks for ways to revive the economy ahead of elections early next year. Nationalist feelings over the contested area have been running high and US President Donald Trump has threatened to withhold trade agreements from both Southeast Asian countries.

 

During the Oct. 15 meeting of economic ministers, Anutin called for talks with the US be “conducted cautiously,” stressing that the border dispute could affect Thailand’s tariff negotiations.

The Trump administration has imposed 19% tariffs on Thai exports, though the Thai government wants to negotiate a lower rate. Economists warn that slowing exports, as well as declining tourist arrivals, could stall economic growth in the second half of this year.

While the current Thai tourism slowdown isn’t a direct result of the dispute, the ongoing conflict may raise safety concerns among foreign tourists, government spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat said at the meeting. He urged that the government launch a public-relations campaign to show that Thailand remains a safe destination.

The tensions have also prompted some Cambodian migrant workers to return home, removing a key source of labor in Thailand’s rapidly aging economy. To address potential worker shortages, the labor ministry told officials that it has begun the registration of undocumented workers as a “temporary replacement measure.”